by Dr. Anne Mulhern

Was your National Grid gas bill higher than you can ever remember it being? Mine was. And more likely than not, it is going to be even more next month.

Why, you ask?

• Based on billing data, this January was the coldest January since 2018.
• Since 2019, the price of National Grid’s natural gas has nearly doubled.

The “Heating Demand” chart above shows the number of therms/day National Grid informed me I used to heat my abode for the January billing period for each of the years from 2017 to 2025. It’s the same place now as in 2017, although a bit better insulated. Seems like 2018 was a cold year!

If you’re wondering what a “therm” is, it’s a unit of energy, just like a calorie. Some natural gas has more energy in it, some less, just like some foods have more energy and some less. The variation in the energy in natural gas is not nearly as great as the variation in foods; there’s about 1.035 therms per cubic foot of natural gas. Your gas prices are based on total therms, used not on total volume of gas used, so that’s what my charts report.

This year, I had to pay more than twice the amount I paid in 2019, but I only used 25% more therms this year than in 2019, as you can see. The rest of the cost increase is due to the price increase.

The simple diagram, “Effect of Weather vs. Price on My Gas Bill” shows the proportionate effects of the two causes. In 2019 I paid about $5.35 / day to heat my home. If I were paying to heat my home this cold winter, but at 2019 prices, I would still only be paying $6.72/day. If I were paying in 2019, a mild winter, but at 2025 prices, I would have to pay $9.53/day. And because this winter is cold and the rates are high, what I actually paid in 2025 was $11.97/day.

So, what contributed to that remarkable price increase?

The chart “National Grid Gas Rates” shows exactly what everyone in Lowell who buys gas from National Grid has experienced over the last several years. There are three different rates. The line labelled “gas” is the price you pay for the actual gas, in $/therm.

I buy my gas from National Grid, but some of you buy your gas from other suppliers, and may have seen slightly different rates. The line labelled “delivery” is what you pay National Grid for supplying the pipes and infrastructure that gets the gas to your home. And “miscellaneous” is what you pay National Grid for everything else that it somehow spends money on: supplying free gas to people who have proved they can not pay, “green” initiatives, lawyers, etc.

Every one of these rates has approximately doubled, so your total gas rate has approximately doubled.

Those are the facts. What’s the explanation?

Well, one part of that explanation is inflation, which has been high over the last several years. Nobody could fail to notice that effect on grocery prices; we’ve all observed prices go up or package size go down on the items that we regularly buy. You can’t miss it. But inflation probably can’t explain it all. So we can try looking for other causes.

Why has the price of the gas itself nearly doubled? It turns out that natural gas companies are regulated by the Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities. It is in the interest of the public that some organization oversee the maintenance of the infrastructure, and given that infrastructure ramifications all over the state, a Massachusetts-wide organization should be the one to do it.

Gas prices fluctuate according to the market. Turns out it is the job of the DPU to verify that the gas supplier is charging for the gas the amount it actually cost the gas supplier for purchase of the gas and storage of the gas during low usage times. We will assume that the “true” price of gas has actually doubled since 2019 and that the cost we are paying for that reflects the true state of things. Note that the price of gas is down just a bit from last year.

That leaves the delivery charge and the miscellaneous charge, which have both increased considerably since last year this time. These are the charges that are most readily influenced by legislation; the miscellaneous charge even more so than the delivery charge.

Requires further investigation, I’ld say!

The Governor of Massachusetts has proposed, and the DPU has required, that natural gas companies reduce the costs for March and April bills by approximately 5%.

Then, during the summer months, the DPU will allow those same companies to recoup that loss by charging you more than they usually would, by the amount they didn’t charge you in March and April.

If you have been inspecting my charts with any attention you’ll see this kind of creative book keeping as an insult to your intelligence as well as a devious assault on your pocketbook.

The proposal will merely shift a very small fraction of your March and April bill to July and August. It will make no change to your actual overall cost for the year. It will do nothing to affect the permanent and massive increase in your natural gas bill that has occurred over the past several years. It will most likely make your gas bill more complicated and harder for you to understand than it is now.

Since the proposed adjustment obviously does nothing useful, why implement it?