Those who know me well know I’ve been a sports and political geek my entire life.

It makes sense, since each of those fields is a numbers game. Hence, I’ve always been fascinated by statistics, what they can tell us about the past and present, and what they might be able to tell us about the future.

As such, the early voting numbers for Lowell’s upcoming municipal election tell an interesting story. And while the final chapter of that story has yet to be definitively written, one stats geek’s analysis points to a return to “normal” when it comes to voter turnout.

A check in with Elections Director Will Rosenberry shows that as of the close of the in-person early voting period at 3pm today, a total of 1,167 people have already cast ballots; 563 of those by mail and 604 in person.

According to Rosenberry, in 2023 those numbers were 292 and 451 respectively, for a total of 743.

Given that the final turnout in 2023 was 7,516, that means that early/mail in voting accounted for just about 10% of the total ballots cast (9.89% to be exact, but 10 is a nice round number for our purposes)

So if we were to assume a similar ratio of early/mail in votes to total votes in 2025, that would point to a total turnout of about 11,670 people casting ballots for Lowell’s next City Council and School Committee.

Now, you know what they say about “don’t assume, it makes an ass out of u and me.” However, based on recent history, that number sounds like it’s in the ballpark.

Here are the turnout figures for the Mill City’s recent municipal elections:

• 2023 – 7,516
• 2021 – 12,145
• 2019 – 11,075
• 2017 – 13,916 (numbers unofficial)
• 2015 – 10,780
• 2013 – 11,581

Toss out the outliers of 2017 (the legendary Lowell High School location battle) and whatever that abomination was in 2023, and you can see that turnout has ranged between 10,780 and 12,145. In other words, the numbers have held pretty steady, with about a 1% variance either way.

Here is where we have to throw in a couple of disclaimers:

1. There are still 265 ballots that have been mailed, but not returned
2. There’s no guarantee the ratio of early votes to total votes equals 10%

Addressing number one, Rosenberry tells us that about 75% of the ballots sent out in the mail generally get returned. Given his office mailed 828 in total in 2025, and that about 62% of those votes have been already cast, we’re approaching that 75% mark. That would mean that about 50-75 or so more mail in votes are likely to get “dunked” in his office between now and 8pm Tuesday night.

Statistically, that wouldn’t change our “guess-timate” of 11,670 total votes cast all that much.

What could alter the scoreboard considerably is if the ratio of early/mail in votes to total votes cast is significantly higher or lower than 10%. In that case, all bets are off and we might see something approaching 2017 or…gasp…2023.

More than likely, those of you who aren’t sports or political geeks have long since tuned out on this column. For those who stuck around, be advised that in 2023 I looked at the ridiculously low early/mail voting numbers at this same point in election time and told you the conventional wisdom of an already pathetic 9,000 voter turnout was WAY overinflated. As you saw when the scoreboard went final, only 7,516 people bothered to attend.

So I’ll wrap up by telling you “I told you so” in 2023, and that when the story is told on the 2025 election, there will be somewhere between 11,500-12,000 total votes cast.

You probably don’t want to bet on it, but you might just want to take that to Washington Savings Bank! (pardon a little nod to one of our premiere sponsors!)