The four vote margin separating Belinda Juran and Dan Finn in yesterday’s Lowell City Council election is close enough that Finn is considering asking for a recount.
When the dust settled and the 2,309 ballots cast in District 3 (Belvidere) were tallied, Juran scored 1,143 votes to Finn’s 1,139, a razor-thin margin that had the city’s political bubble buzzing.
Immediately, attention turned to whether the second place finisher would file a petition to have the ballots counted again, which many political observers have been speculating he would do. Others, however, considered Finn’s appearance at Juran’s election night gathering and the fact he congratulated her on a great campaign while addressing the crowd as an indication he had conceded the race.
Late Wednesday afternoon, Finn confirmed to InsideLowell that he was “thinking it over” and that he would take the next day or two to speak with his family to gauge how they felt about the process. Specifically, he mentioned seeking the advice of his “Campaign Manager” Nora, the candidate’s 12-year old daughter who was a constant by his side during the hard-fought campaign.
An analysis by Fair Vote found that recall efforts are rare, and that reversals of results are even more rare.
A study of 6,929 statewide general elections between 2020 and 2023 found that only 36-elections became subject to a recount (about 1 in 192) and that only three of those efforts resulted in a different winner.
In all three instances where the finish was reversed, the initial margin of victory in those statewide races was less than .06 percentage points. The average margin for recounts that did not change the outcome was significantly larger, at 0.21%.
It isn’t clear whether the analysis by Fair Vote holds true in municipal elections, but Juran’s margin over Finn was 49.50%-49.33%, a difference of .17 percentage points.
An avenue potentially offering hope to the second place finisher is that 27 of the 2,309 ballots cast were recorded as blanks. Whether those involve residents who chose to vote in the City Council or School Committee At-Large contests but not the District 3 contest, or whether the machines may not have properly registered an intended vote, won’t be known until and if the ballots are hand-counted.
Lowell Elections Director Will Rosenberry tells InsideLowell Finn has the option of requesting a machine or hand recount, though it’s likely if he goes ahead with the effort, he will ask that all ballots be hand counted.
According to procedure laid out by the Secretary of State’s Office and Mass General Laws, a recount petition must be filed by 5pm, ten days after the election, and must include the signatures of ten or more registered voters in the Ward. In city elections, the city clerk shall not declare the result of an election until the time for filing a petition for a recount has expired. If a recount petition has been filed, the results if the election are not declared until the ballots are recounted and the results amended.
