by Dr. Anne Mulhern
In Lowell, this presidential election saw the lowest voter turnout since 2008 and the fewest votes for a Democratic presidential candidate since 2004.
Every year since 2000, the number of voters in a presidential election has increased and every year the number of votes for the Democratic candidate has also increased. This is the first year since 2000 those trends have reversed, with both reversing dramatically. (See the Lowell-specific graph at the bottom of this article for a visual depiction of this remarkable change)
Note that a similar sudden reversal seems to have occurred in Massachusetts as a whole, though the change is a little less dramatic state-wide. The number of votes, for example, was only a little less than it was in 2016, the number of votes for the Democratic candidate just a smidge more than it was in 2016.
The reason Lowell’s data is more remarkable is that it has leaned more heavily toward the Democratic candidate over time and the drop in votes for the Democratic candidate this election was a larger proportion of total votes. For the first time since 1996 Lowell voted more Republican than Massachusetts overall. (See the Massachusetts-specific graph at the bottom for a visual depiction of the state elections trend)
In Lowell, there were approximately 5300 fewer votes cast in the recent presidential election than were cast in 2020.
There were about 30 fewer votes cast for Donald Trump in this election than in 2020.
There were about 5500 fewer votes cast for Kamala Harris in this election than were cast for Joseph Biden in 2020. Since approximately 25500 votes were cast for Biden, that change represents about a 20% decrease in votes for Harris.
There were 200 more votes cast for other party candidates in this election than were cast in 2020.
Kamala Harris lost nearly every vote that stayed away this election but was cast last election. That is, all 5300, plus another 200 votes to the Libertarian party candidate and others.
Why did Donald Trump’s Democratic party opponent lose so many votes in this election compared to the previous election?
There are a few possibilities.
The first possibility is a genuine change in genuine voters’ minds. Perhaps many Lowell citizens who saw a reason to vote for the Democratic party candidate in 2020 did not think they had a reason to bother this time. That seems to be the way most of the rest of the country has gone, so it is easy to accept that explanation for at least some of the lost votes.
The second possibility is that a significant fraction of votes Joseph Biden received in 2020 may have been the product of a major change in the way we conduct elections.
Recall that in 2020, no-fault mail-in ballots and ballot drop boxes had been introduced for the first time, quite suddenly, in the middle of the summer, by the Massachusetts legislature (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/divisions/elections/research-and-statistics/early-voting-statistics.htm). It is obvious that the portion of an election conducted by mail and drop boxes is inherently more susceptible to exploitation than the portion done at the polling place.
I’ve written about this problem in two previous articles: https://insidelowell.com/the-silent-death-of-the-secret-ballot/, https://insidelowell.com/what-to-do-if-you-already-voted-but-it-wasnt-you/.
There was a deal of scoffing at my concerns about election integrity when my articles were published, but since then two would-be voters have stopped by https://insidelowell.com/what-to-do-if-you-already-voted-but-it-wasnt-you/ to report that they went to vote and found that “they” already had.
So both explanations are possible. Genuine voters may have genuinely chosen to stay away in 2024 and the mail-in ballot process, including drop boxes, may have been exploited to generate numerous votes in 2020.
How can we find out how much of each was in play between 2020 and 2024?
That remains a puzzle. Nonetheless, we need to do everything possible to increase election integrity for all future elections.
I believe that eliminating no-fault mail-in ballots would be the most effective first step toward achieving that goal.
References for Election Results:
- Prior Years: https://electionstats.state.ma.us/
- This Year (official certified results are not yet available):
5 responses to “Where Did the Votes Go?”
Very well thought out. Logical to me.
Could another reason is that “get out to vote” campaigns have largely absent this time around?
Maybe the missing votes have left town? There is still an ongoing migration of MA residents out of this oppressive state. That, and older voters that had once made Lowell a conservative town obviously continue to die off or move into nursing homes. Then there’s the “what’s the use” effect. Dems have convinced most voters that MA is deep deep blue so what’s the use coming out to vote? So voters don’t.
Kev, I think you have a point there. I just looked at LowellVotes (https://www.lowellvotes.org) and this organization, at least, seems to have become very inactive, whereas a few years ago it was much more active. So some fraction of genuine voters not voting could be explained by the lack of organization representatives urging them to vote in the months etc. leading up to the election.
Pierre V. Comtois – If you look at the graph you’ll see that in 2016, Trump received 10,000 votes, in 2020 about 12,000, and in 2024, about 12,000, again. That is an upward trend, and kind of intriguing. But it is not what I’m really interested in here. In 2016, Clinton received 23,000 votes, more than double what Trump received, in 2020 Biden received 25000 votes, still more than twice as much as Trump, even though Trump had made a 2000 vote gain since his previous run. In 2024, Harris received 20,000 votes, about 5000 less than Biden had received, just 4 years previously, and fewer than any Democrat candidate had received since 2004.
That immense, 5000 vote, loss of Democrat votes is what I’m interested in explaining. It is truly historic.