by Dr. Anne Mulhern
Lowell has been a deep blue city for decades.
Since 2000, the number of votes cast in the United State Presidential election in Lowell has gone up by a few thousand every year, and the number of votes cast for the Democrat presidential candidate has gone up by approximately the same amount. That is, as votes have been added every four years, the lion’s share of those new votes have gone to the Democrat candidate. Chart 2 shows this trend over time. (full size version of all charts available at end of article)
Votes for Republican candidates have not followed the same pattern, remaining more or less constant, with noticeable jumps in certain years. In 2004 the number of Republican votes went up by about 2000 votes, exceeding 10,000 for the first time and remaining more or less constant until 2020, when they jumped by another 2000, to exceed 12,000, and remained almost exactly the same in 2024.
The effect of this is shown in Chart 1 which shows the ratio of votes for the Democrat candidate to those for the Republican candidate. Generally, the Democrat candidate has received twice as many votes as the Republican, except in 2004, when the Republican votes made that 2000 vote jump (why?) and, in 2024, when the ratio was lower than it has been since 2000.
What caused that extraordinary drop? In 2016 the preference for the Democrat candidate was 2.2 to 1, in 2020 it had decreased to 2.1 to 1 and in 2024 it dropped sharply to 1.6 to 1.
The small drop between 2016 and 2020 is interesting, but not extraordinary. There were 1500 more votes cast in the 2020 election than the 2016 election. There were approximately 2000 more votes cast for the Republican candidate, 2000 more votes cast for the Democrat candidate and 2000 fewer votes cast for third party candidates.
The large drop between 2020 and 2024 is bigger and much more remarkable. It has no precedent in this century.
For one thing, if you consult Chart 2, you’ll see that for the first time this century, the total number of votes cast for the Presidential election declined by 5000, reversing that trend of an increase of a few thousand every year. Why? What caused those votes to be absent this year?
Chart 3 is a side-by-side comparison of the 2020 and 2024 elections, using 2020 total votes as the baseline. Because the total number of votes decreased in 2024 the 2024 column requires a special category “Not Voted.”
The graph shows something astonishing. Of the 5000 missing votes, all 5000 were lost by the Democrat candidate. The votes cast for the Republican candidate were almost exactly the same amount, and the votes cast for third party candidates were near enough the same as makes no difference. Why? Why did the Democrat candidate lose all the missing votes?
If this were the stock market, one would have to conclude that the Democrat candidates had been overvalued since 2004 and the market is now correcting.
But this is elections, and so something else must be at play. What could that be?
I’ve speculated about this question in a previous article (https://insidelowell.com/where-did-the-votes-go/). A few plausible hypotheses have been advanced, any of which could have contributed to this outcome.
- The appeal of the Democrat candidate was just not enough to get voters to bother to cast a ballot this election.
- The sudden introduction of no-fault mail-in ballots and drop boxes by the Massachusetts state legislature inflated the number of votes cast in 2020.
- (Suggestion from Kev) Get-out-the-vote campaigns were not nearly so active in 2024 as in 2020.
At the end of November, certified election results and other statistics will be available for this election at https://electionstats.state.ma.us/. Some of the data may help to explain these historic and unexpected election results further. I hope I’ll have more insights to offer then.
References for Election Results:
- Prior Years: https://electionstats.state.ma.us/
- This Year (official certified results are not yet available):
2 responses to “How Did 5,000 Votes Disappear in Just 4-Years”
With certified results in, the numbers can be updated, but the overall shape of the graphs is just the same.
Here’s a table comparing preliminary to certified results:
Preliminary Results Certified Results
Total Vote Decrease 5000 3500
Total Vote Decrease Dem 5000 4500
Total Vote Increase Rep 0 600
So, the Democrat candidate lost not only all the missing votes, but an extra thousand as well, and the Republican candidate actually gained a few.
Table not formatted properly, trying again:
Preliminary Results:
* Total Vote Decrease: 5000
* Total Vote Decrease for Democrat: 5000
* Total Vote Increase for Republican: 0
Certified Results:
* Total Vote Decrease: 3500
* Total Vote Decrease for Democrat: 4500
* Total Vote Increase for Republican: 600